Open Access

Andreas Klasen, Simone Krummaker, Chris Jeffs, Jan Vassard

• In a dynamic global landscape, the role of UK Export Finance (UKEF) and other export credit agencies (ECAs) has never been more important. Access to finance is critical for exporters as it enables them to invest in production, expand operations, manage cash flow and mitigate trade risks. However, businesses face challenges in securing export finance and trade credit insurance as geopolitical andIn a dynamic global landscape, the role of UK Export Finance (UKEF) and other export credit agencies (ECAs) has never been more important. Access to finance is critical for exporters as it enables them to invest in production, expand operations, manage cash flow and mitigate trade risks. However, businesses face challenges in securing export finance and trade credit insurance as geopolitical and trade megatrends lead to increased political, market and credit risks. Drawing on qualitative data from 35 semi-structured interviews and expert discussions and based on the Futures Triangle analytical framework, this white paper analyses the geopolitical and trade megatrends that UKEF and other ECAs will face in the coming years. It presents novel findings about the implications for ECA mandates, strategies, products and operations: The evolution of mandates towards a “growth promoter”, the need to further scale up operations, the use of big data and artificial intelligence for risk analysis and forecasting, and the need to balance multiple and conflicting priorities, including export growth, support for small and medium-sized exporters, inclusive trade, climate action, and positive impact in developing markets.…