Refine
Document Type
- Article (reviewed) (13) (remove)
Language
- English (13)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (13) (remove)
Keywords
- Export (4)
- Trade (4)
- ECA (2)
- Finance (2)
- Artificial intelligence (1)
- Cash flow (1)
- Claims (1)
- Competitive positioning (1)
- Crisis-time behaviour (1)
- Digitalization (1)
Institute
- IfTI - Institute for Trade and Innovation (13) (remove)
Open Access
- Open Access (6)
- Closed (4)
- Diamond (2)
- Closed Access (1)
- Gold (1)
- Hybrid (1)
Economic growth is usually driven by improvements in productivity, economic efficiency, trade and innovation. Increasing efficiency means to produce larger output using the same amount of factors for production such as raw materials, labour, and capital. However, regardless of the driver, growth is often investment-hungry and it is not rare to find an economy with potential for growth but lacking locally available investment. In this scenario, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can fill the gap between investment needed to promote economic growth and locally available investments.
The Future of FDI: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals 2030 through Impact Investment
(2019)
Publicized as a global call for action in 2015, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution on the Sustainable Development Goals 2030 (SDGs). Before issuing the SDGs in 2015, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has already identified in 2014, as part of their World Investment Report, that especially developing countries are facing an estimated USD 2.5 trillion funding gap annually in the efforts to achieve the SDGs. Yet, the investment opportunities and challenges for investors, when contributing to the closure of this funding gap while benefiting from its economic potential have not been widely discussed. Despite that Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) are a key driver to sustainable economic growth and prosperity of a nation, policies and a holistic framework linking the 2030 Agenda to actionable investment opportunities for private investors are missing. Furthermore, a global platform capturing, channeling and promoting investment projects aiming to achieve the SDGs through impact investment has not been established. Utilizing global financial resources more effectively while developing new approaches and tools to promote impact investments, which demonstrate the benefits for investors to tap into the funding gap of the 2030 Agenda, will have the potential to significantly shape and influence the future of FDI.
Open markets, international trade and foreign direct investments are a source of prosperity in challenging times. This Special Section looks at developed economies and emerging markets, also taking into account the role of trade for impactful capacity-building in least developed countries (LDCs). Specific emphasis is placed on financing economic development and trade, analysing what roles trade and development finance should play in the quest for an efficient mobilisation of private capital for growth, trade and development.
Prediction of Claims in Export Credit Finance: A Comparison of Four Machine Learning Techniques
(2020)
This study evaluates four machine learning (ML) techniques (Decision Trees (DT), Random Forests (RF), Neural Networks (NN) and Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN)) on their ability to accurately predict export credit insurance claims. Additionally, we compare the performance of the ML techniques against a simple benchmark (BM) heuristic. The analysis is based on the utilisation of a dataset provided by the Berne Union, which is the most comprehensive collection of export credit insurance data and has been used in only two scientific studies so far. All ML techniques performed relatively well in predicting whether or not claims would be incurred, and, with limitations, in predicting the order of magnitude of the claims. No satisfactory results were achieved predicting actual claim ratios. RF performed significantly better than DT, NN and PNN against all prediction tasks, and most reliably carried their validation performance forward to test performance.
This paper aims to draw attention to an urgent need for reform of the regulatory framework of the broader export credit system to ensure a new and comprehensive "safe haven" for officially supported export credits. The purpose is to analyse the complex debate on disciplines of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), creating a point of reference for future analysis of and debates around the "carve-out clause" of the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM) and a "safe haven" in a broader sense.
Decentralized applications (dApp) have proliferated in recent years, but their long-term viability is a topic of debate. However, for dApps to be sustainable, and suitable for integration into a larger service networks, they need to attract users and promise reliable availability. Therefore, assessing their longevity is crucial. Analyzing the utilization trajectory of a service is, however, challenging due to several factors, such as demand spikes, noise, autocorrelation, and non-stationarity. In this study, we employ robust statistical techniques to identify trends in currently popular dApps. Our findings demonstrate that a significant proportion of dApps, across a range of categories, exhibit statistically significant positive overall trends, indicating that success in decentralized computing can be sustainable and transcends specific fields. However, there is also a substantial number of dApps showing negative trends, with a disproportionately high number from the decentralized finance (DeFi) category. Furthermore, a more detailed inspection of time series segments shows a clearly diminishing proportion of positive trends from mid-2021 to the present. In summary, we conclude that the dApp economy might have lost some momentum, and that there is a strong element of uncertainty regarding its future significance.
Public export credits and trade insurance require a global framework of institutions, rules and regulations to avoid subsidies and a race to the bottom. The extensive modernisation of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits (Arrangement) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development intends to re-level the playing field. This Practitioner Commentary describes the demand for adequate government interventions, considers the need for the reform and discusses key aspects of the new Arrangement. We argue that there is a breakthrough in several important areas such as tenors, repayment terms and green finance. However, we also find that the modernisation falls short in areas such as the interplay between different rulebooks, pre-shipment instruments' regulations and climate action.
International trade requires sufficient, reliable, and affordable sources of financing. Export credit agencies (ECAs) fill trade finance gaps by offering financing, insurance and guarantees to provide liquidity or mitigate risks. They help to create or secure jobs in the domestic economy. However, comprehensive government support is required to create significant impact. This includes ‘full faith and credit’ of the state. In the context of public foreign trade promotion, full faith and credit is defined as an explicit, direct or indirect, irrevocable, legal commitment to accept all liabilities of an ECA as unconditional obligations of the respective government. Our policy recommendations for countries with relatively young ECAs, for example in Ukraine, Armenia, and Malawi, are to establish a full guarantee in addition to an efficient legal set-up, sufficient capital, and sound risk management of the respective agency. Without full faith and credit, policy goals of fostering economic growth through foreign trade fall short.
Purpose
Although recent literature has examined diverse measures adopted by SMEs to navigate the COVID-19 turbulence, there is a shortage of evidence on how crisis-time strategy creation behaviour and digitalization activities increase (1) sales and (2) cash flow. Thus, predicated on a novel strategy creation perspective, this inquiry aims to investigate the crisis behaviour, sales and cash flow performance of 528 SMEs in Morocco.
Design/methodology/approach
Novel links between (1) aggregate wage cuts, (2) variable operating hours, (3) deferred payment to suppliers, (4) deferred payment to tax authorities and (5) sales performance are developed and tested. A further link between sales performance and cash flow is also examined and the analysis is conducted using a non-linear structural equation modelling technique.
Findings
While there is a significant association between strategy creation behaviours and sales performance, only variable operating hours have a positive effect. Also, sales performance increases cash flow and this relationship is substantially strengthened by e-commerce digitalization and innovation.
Originality/value
Theoretically, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first inquiries to espouse the strategy creation view to explain SMEs' crisis-time behaviour and digitalization. For practical purposes, to supplement Moroccan SMEs' propensity to seek tax deferrals, it is argued that debt and equity support measures are also needed to boost sales performance and cash flow.