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In a dynamic global landscape, the role of UK Export Finance (UKEF) and other export credit agencies (ECAs) has never been more important. Access to finance is critical for exporters as it enables them to invest in production, expand operations, manage cash flow and mitigate trade risks. However, businesses face challenges in securing export finance and trade credit insurance as geopolitical and trade megatrends lead to increased political, market and credit risks. Drawing on qualitative data from 35 semi-structured interviews and expert discussions and based on the Futures Triangle analytical framework, this white paper analyses the geopolitical and trade megatrends that UKEF and other ECAs will face in the coming years. It presents novel findings about the implications for ECA mandates, strategies, products and operations: The evolution of mandates towards a “growth promoter”, the need to further scale up operations, the use of big data and artificial intelligence for risk analysis and forecasting, and the need to balance multiple and conflicting priorities, including export growth, support for small and medium-sized exporters, inclusive trade, climate action, and positive impact in developing markets.
The last decades have seen the evolution of industrial production into more sophisticated processes. The development of specialized, high-end machines has increased the importance of predictive maintenance of mechanical systems to produce high-quality goods and avoid machine breakdowns. Predictive maintenance has two main objectives: to classify the current status of a machine component and to predict the maintenance interval by estimating its remaining useful life (RUL). Nowadays, both objectives are covered by machine learning and deep learning approaches and require large training datasets that are often not available. One possible solution may be transfer learning, where the knowledge of a larger dataset is transferred to a smaller one. This thesis is primarily concerned with transfer learning for predictive maintenance for fault classification and RUL estimation. The first part presents the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques with a focus on techniques applicable to predictive maintenance tasks (Chapter 2). This is followed by a presentation of the machine tool background and current research that applies the previously explained machine learning techniques to predictive maintenance tasks (Chapter 3). One novelty of this thesis is that it introduces a new intermediate domain that represents data by focusing on the relevant information to allow the data to be used on different domains without losing relevant information (Chapter 4). The proposed solution is optimized for rotating elements. Therefore, the presented intermediate domain creates different layers by focusing on the fault frequencies of the rotating elements. Another novelty of this thesis is its semi and unsupervised transfer learning-based fault classification approach for different component types under different process conditions (Chapter 5). It is based on the intermediate domain utilized by a convolutional neural network (CNN). In addition, a novel unsupervised transfer learning loss function is presented based on the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), one of the state-of-the-art algorithms. It extends the MMD by considering the intermediate domain layers; therefore, it is called layered maximum mean discrepancy (LMMD). Another novelty is an RUL estimation transfer learning approach for different component types based on the data of accelerometers with low sampling rates (Chapter 6). It applies the feature extraction concepts of the classification approach: the presented intermediate domain and the convolutional layers. The features are then used as input for a long short-term memory (LSTM) network. The transfer learning is based on fixed feature extraction, where the trained convolutional layers are taken over. Only the LSTM network has to be trained again. The intermediate domain supports this transfer learning type, as it should be similar for different component types. In addition, it enables the practical usage of accelerometers with low sampling rates during transfer learning, which is an absolute novelty. All presented novelties are validated in detailed case studies using the example of bearings (Chapter 7). In doing so, their superiority over state-of-the-art approaches is demonstrated.
With the expansion of IoT devices in many aspects of our life, the security of such systems has become an important challenge. Unlike conventional computer systems, any IoT security solution should consider the constraints of these systems such as computational capability, memory, connectivity, and power consumption limitations. Physical Unclonable Functions (PUFs) with their special characteristics were introduced to satisfy the security needs while respecting the mentioned constraints. They exploit the uncontrollable and reproducible variations of the underlying component for security applications such as identification, authentication, and communication security. Since IoT devices are typically low cost, it is important to reuse existing elements in their hardware (for instance sensors, ADCs, etc.) instead of adding extra costs for the PUF hardware. Micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) devices are widely used in IoT systems as sensors and actuators. In this thesis, a comprehensive study of the potential application of MEMS devices as PUF primitives is provided. MEMS PUF leverages the uncontrollable variations in the parameters of MEMS elements to derive secure keys for cryptographic applications. Experimental and simulation results show that our proposed MEMS PUFs are capable of generating enough entropy for a complex key generation, while their responses show low fluctuations in different environmental conditions.
Keeping in mind that the PUF responses are prone to change in the presence of noise and environmental variations, it is critical to derive reliable keys from the PUF and to use the maximum entropy at the same time. In the second part of this thesis, we elaborate on different key generation schemes and their advantages and drawbacks. We propose the PUF output positioning (POP) and integer linear programming (ILP) methods, which are novel methods for grouping the PUF outputs in order to maximize the extracted entropy. To implement these methods, the key enrollment and key generation algorithms are presented. The proposed methods are then evaluated by applying on the responses of the MEMS PUF, where it can be practically shown that the proposed method outperforms other existing PUF key generation methods.
The final part of this thesis is dedicated to the application of the MEMS PUF as a security solution for IoT systems. We select the mutual authentication of IoT devices and their backend system, and propose two lightweight authentication protocols based on MEMS PUFs. The presented protocols undergo a comprehensive security analysis to show their eligibility to be used in IoT systems. As the result, the output of this thesis is a lightweight security solution based on MEMS PUFs, which introduces a very low overhead on the cost of the hardware.
Socially assistive robots (SARs) are becoming more prevalent in everyday life, emphasizing the need to make them socially acceptable and aligned with users' expectations. Robots' appearance impacts users' behaviors and attitudes towards them. Therefore, product designers choose visual qualities to give the robot a character and to imply its functionality and personality. In this work, we sought to investigate the effect of cultural differences on Israeli and German designers' perceptions of SARs' roles and appearance in four different contexts: a service robot for an assisted living/retirement residence facility, a medical assistant robot for a hospital environment, a COVID-19 officer robot, and a personal assistant robot for domestic use. The key insight is that although Israeli and German designers share similar perceptions of visual qualities for most of the robotics roles, we found differences in the perception of the COVID-19 officer robot's role and, by that, its most suitable visual design. This work indicates that context and culture play a role in users' perceptions and expectations; therefore, they should be taken into account when designing new SARs for diverse contexts.
This report examines exporters’ challenges and possible solutions for public intervention to promote foreign trade. Based on fieldwork conducted in Georgia, we explore which policy approaches can help to stimulate Georgian exports further. Our outcomes show that exporters face substantial barriers such as navigating complex trade regulations, lack of knowledge about target markets, trade finance gaps, as well as new export promotion programs (EPPs) in competitor countries. Other upper-middle-income countries can learn from our results that exporters can significantly benefit from a comprehensive export promotion strategy combined with an ecosystem-based “team” approach. EPPs related to awareness and capacity building in Georgia should be part of this strategy, focusing on challenges such as a lack of knowledge about trade practices and international business skills. Other EPPs must help to mitigate related market failures, as information gathering is costly, and firms have no incentive to share this information with competitors. Furthermore, targeted marketing support and customer matchmaking can answer Georgian exporters’ challenges, such as lack of market access and low sector visibility. Our results also show that public intervention through financial support and risk mitigation is essential for firms with an international orientation. The high-quality, rich outcomes provide significant value for other upper-middle-income countries by exploring the example of Georgia’s contemporary circumstances in an in-depth manner based on extensive interviews and document analysis. Limitations include that our work primarily relies on qualitative data and further research could involve a quantitative study with a diverse range of sectors.
In anisotropic media, the existence of leaky surface acoustic waves is a well-known phenomenon. Very recently, their analogs at the apex of an elastic silicon wedge have been found in experiments using laser-ultrasonics. In addition to a wedge-wave (WW) pulse with low speed, a pseudo-wedge wave (p-WW) pulse was found with a velocity higher than the velocity of shear bulk waves, propagating in the same direction. With a probe-beam-deflection technique, the propagation of the WW pulses was monitored on one of the faces of the wedge at variable distance from the apex. In this way, their depth structure and the leakage of the p-WW could be visualized directly. Calculations were carried out using a method based on a representation of the displacement field in Laguerre functions. This method has been validated by calculating the surface density of states in anisotropic media and comparing the results with those obtained from the surface Green's tensor. The approach has then been extended to the continuum of acoustic modes in infinite wedges with fixed wave-vector along the apex. These calculations confirmed the measured speeds of the WW and p-WW pulses.
Anisotropy has been found to play an important role for the existence of edge-localized acoustic modes as well as for nonlinear effects in rectangular edges. For a certain propagation geometry in silicon, the effective second-order nonlinearity for wedge waves was determined numerically from second-order and third-order elastic moduli and compared with the nonlinearity for Rayleigh waves propagating in the direction of the apex on one of the two surfaces forming the edge. In the presence of weak dispersion resulting from modifications of the wedge tip or coating of the adjacent surfaces, solitary pulses are predicted to exist and their shape was calculated.
Ultra-low-power passive telemetry systems for industrial and biomedical applications have gained much popularity lately. The reduction of the power consumption and size of the circuits poses critical challenges in ultra-low-power circuit design. Biotelemetry applications like leakage detection in silicone breast implants require low-power-consuming small-size electronics. In this doctoral thesis, the design, simulation, and measurement of a programmable mixed-signal System-on-Chip (SoC) called General Application Passive Sensor Integrated Circuit (GAPSIC) is presented. Owing to the low power consumption, GAPSIC is capable of completely passive operation. Such a batteryless passive system has lower maintenance complexity and is also free from battery-related health hazards. With a die area of 4.92 mm² and a maximum analog power consumption of 592 µW, GAPSIC has one of the best figure-of-merits compared to similar state-of-the-art SoCs. Regarding possible applications, GAPSIC can read out and digitally transmit the signals of resistive sensors for pressure or temperature measurements. Additionally, GAPSIC can measure electrocardiogram (ECG) signals and conductivity.
The design of GAPSIC complies with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 15693/NFC (near field communication) 5 standard for radio frequency identification (RFID), corresponding to the frequency range of 13.56 MHz. A passive transponder developed with GAPSIC comprises of an external memory storage and very few other external components, like an antenna and sensors. The passive tag antenna and reader antenna use inductive coupling for communication and energy transfer, which enables passive operation. A passive tag developed with GAPSIC can communicate with an NFC compatible smart device or an ISO 15693 RFID reader. An external memory storage contains the programmable application-specific firmware.
As a mixed-signal SoC, GAPSIC includes both analog and digital circuitries. The analog block of GAPSIC includes a power management unit, an RFID/NFC communication unit, and a sensor readout unit. The digital block includes an integrated 32-bit microcontroller, developed by the Hochschule Offenburg ASIC design center, and digital peripherals. A 16-kilobyte random-access memory and a read-only 16-kilobyte memory constitute the GAPSIC internal memory. For the fabrication of GAPSIC, one poly, six-metal 0.18 µm CMOS process is used.
The design of GAPSIC includes two stages. In the first stage, a standalone RFID/NFC frontend chip with a power management unit, an RFID/NFC communication unit, a clock regenerator unit, and a field detector unit was designed. In the second stage, the rest of the functional blocks were integrated with the blocks of the RFID/NFC frontend chip for the final integration of GAPSIC. To reduce the power consumption, conventional low-power design techniques were applied extensively like multiple power supplies, and the operation of complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) transistors in the sub-threshold region of operation, as well as further innovative circuit designs.
An overvoltage protection circuit, a power rectifier, a bandgap reference circuit, and two low-dropout (LDO) voltage regulators constitute the power management unit of GAPSIC. The overvoltage protection circuit uses a novel method where three stacked transistor pairs shunt the extra voltage. In the power rectifier, four rectifier units are arranged in parallel, which is a unique approach. The four parallel rectifier units provide the optimal choice in terms of voltage drop and the area required.
The communication unit is responsible for RFID/NFC communication and incorporates demodulation and load modulation circuitry. The demodulator circuit comprises of an envelope detector, a high-pass filter, and a comparator. Following a new approach, the bandgap reference circuit itself acts as the load for the envelope detector circuit, which minimizes the circuit complexity and area. For the communication between the reader and the RFID/NFC tag, amplitude-shift keying (ASK) is used to modulate signals, where the smallest modulation index can be as low as 10%. A novel technique involving a comparator with a preset offset voltage effectively demodulates the ASK signal. With an effective die area of 0.7 mm² and power consumption of 107 µW, the standalone RFID/NFC frontend chip has the best figure-of-merits compared to the state-of-the-art frontend chips reported in the relevant literature. A passive RFID/NFC tag developed with the standalone frontend chip, as well as temperature and pressure sensors demonstrate the full passive operational capability of the frontend chip. An NFC reader device using a custom-built Android-based application software reads out the sensor data from the passive tag.
The sensor readout circuit consists of a channel selector with two differential and four single-ended inputs with a programmable-gain instrumentation amplifier. The entire sensor readout part remains deactivated when not in use. The internal memory stores the measured offset voltage of the instrumentation amplifier, where a firmware code removes the offset voltage from the measured sensor signal. A 12-bit successive approximation register (SAR) type analog-to-digital-converter (ADC) based on a charge redistribution architecture converts the measured sensor data to a digital value. The digital peripherals include a serial peripheral interface, four timers, RFID/NFC interfaces, sensor readout unit interfaces, and 12-bit SAR logic.
Two sets of studies with custom-made NFC tag antennas for biomedical applications were conducted to ascertain their compatibility with GAPSIC. The first study involved the link efficiency measurements of NFC tag antennas and an NFC reader antenna with porcine tissue. In a separate experiment, the effect of a ferrite compared to air core on the antenna-coupling factor was investigated. With the ferrite core, the coupling factor increased by four times.
Among the state-of-the-art SoCs published in recent scientific articles, GAPSIC is the only passive programmable SoC with a power management unit, an RFID/NFC communication interface, a sensor readout circuit, a 12-bit SAR ADC, and an integrated 32-bit microcontroller. This doctoral research includes the preliminary study of three passive RFID tags designed with discrete components for biomedical and industrial applications like measurements of temperature, pH, conductivity, and oxygen concentration, along with leakage detection in silicone breast implants. Besides its small size and low power consumption, GAPSIC is suitable for each of the biomedical and industrial applications mentioned above due to the integrated high-performance microcontroller, the robust programmable instrumentation amplifier, and the 12-bit analog-to-digital converter. Furthermore, the simulation and measurement data show that GAPSIC is well suited for the design of a passive tag to monitor arterial blood pressure in patients experiencing Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD), which is proposed in this doctoral thesis as an exemplary application of the developed system.
Previous studies of the hyphenation of gas chromatographic separation and spectrophotometric detection in the ultraviolet wavelength range between 168 and 330 nm showed a high potential for applications where the analysis of complex samples is required. Within this paper the development of a state-of-the-art detection system for compounds in the vapour phase is described, offering an improved behaviour compared to previous systems: Dependent on the requirements of established detection systems hyphenated with gas chromatography, the main components of the system have to be designed for optimum performance and reliability of the spectrophotometric detector: A deuterium lamp as a broadband light source has been selected for improved stability in the measurements. A new-type absorption cell based on fiber-optics has been developed considering the dynamic necessary to compete with existing techniques. In addition, the influence of the volume of the cell on the chromatogram needs to be analyzed. Tests for determining the performance of the absorption cell in terms of chemical and thermal influences have been carried out. A new spectrophotometer with adequate spectral resolution in the wavelength range, offering improved stability and dynamic for an efficient use in this application was developed. Furthermore, the influence of each component on the performance, reliability and stability of the sensor system will be discussed. An overview and outlook over the potential applications in the environmental, scientific and medical field will be given.
Bluetooth personal area networks (PANs) share the 2.4 GHz ISM spectrum with the IEEE 802.11b wireless local area networks (WLANs). With the popularity of wireless devices, this ISM spectrum is becoming more and more crowded. As a result of this interference between WLANs and PANs, the performance of each network is decreased. Current research has not significantly covered the degrading impact of an 802.11b interferer on Bluetooth voice transmission. Within this project, simulations were carried out to precisely study the impact of an 802.11b interferer on the performance of Bluetooth voice transmission at different ratio levels of Bluetooth power to WLAN power at the receiver side. Furthermore, the impact of SNR on the Bluetooth voice performance and the benefit of using the SCORT packet type was analysed as well. Based on the results presented, network performance can be evaluated at the desired activity level.