Refine
Document Type
- Article (unreviewed) (2)
- Article (reviewed) (1)
- Part of a Book (1)
Language
- English (4)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (4) (remove)
Keywords
- Export Credit (2)
- Machine Learning (2)
- Maschinelles Lernen (2)
- Versicherung (2)
- Claims (1)
- Export (1)
- Exportkredit (1)
- Kredit (1)
- Prediction (1)
Institute
Open Access
- Open Access (2)
Prediction of Claims in Export Credit Finance: A Comparison of Four Machine Learning Techniques
(2020)
This study evaluates four machine learning (ML) techniques (Decision Trees (DT), Random Forests (RF), Neural Networks (NN) and Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN)) on their ability to accurately predict export credit insurance claims. Additionally, we compare the performance of the ML techniques against a simple benchmark (BM) heuristic. The analysis is based on the utilisation of a dataset provided by the Berne Union, which is the most comprehensive collection of export credit insurance data and has been used in only two scientific studies so far. All ML techniques performed relatively well in predicting whether or not claims would be incurred, and, with limitations, in predicting the order of magnitude of the claims. No satisfactory results were achieved predicting actual claim ratios. RF performed significantly better than DT, NN and PNN against all prediction tasks, and most reliably carried their validation performance forward to test performance.
Risk aversion, financing and real servicThe Global CEO Survey was launched in 2015 by researchers from Offenburg University, the University of Westminster and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) to better understand and discover what factors influence exporters’ demand for credit insurance. Although some scholars discussed aspects of corporate insurance demand with regard to exporters, there is limited research concerning the demand for export credit insurance associated with firm-specific factors. Only few empirical studies support existing theories on corporate insurance demand and export credits. This project investigates and fills the relevant gap of official export credit insurance demand.es