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With recent developments in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, many are discussing about Germany’s dependency on fossil fuel imports in its energy system, and how can the country proceed with reducing that dependency. With its wide-ranging consumption sectors, the electricity sector comes as the perfect choice to start with. Recent reports showed that the German federal government is already intending to have a fully renewable electricity by 2035 while exploiting all possible clean power options. This was published in the federal government’s climate emergency program (Easter Package) in early 2022. The aim of this package is to initiate a rapid transition and decarbonization of the electricity sector. The Easter Package expects an enormous growth of renewable energies to a completely new level, with already at least 80% renewable gross energy consumption, with extensive and broad deployment of different generation technologies on various scales. This paper will discuss this ambitious plan and outline some insights into this huge and rapidly increasing step, and show how much will Germany need in order to achieve this huge milestone towards a fully green supply of the electricity sector. Different scenarios and shares of renewables will be investigated in order to elaborate on preponed climate-neutral goal of the electricity sector by 2035. The results pointed out some promising aspects in achieving a 100% renewable power, with massive investments in both generation and storage technologies.
One of the major challenges impeding the energy transition is the intermittency of solar and wind electricity generation due to their dependency on weather changes. The demand-side energy flexibility contributes considerably to mitigate the energy supply/demand imbalances resulting from external influences such as the weather. As one of the largest electricity consumers, the industrial enterprises present a high demand-side flexibility potential from their production processes and on-site energy assets. In this direction, methods are needed with a focus on enabling the energy flexibility and ensure an active participation of such enterprises in the electricity markets especially with variable prices of electricity. This paper presents a generic model library for an industrial enterprise implemented with optimal control for energy flexibility purposes. The components in the model library represent the typical technical units of an industrial enterprise on material, media, and energy flow levels with their operative constraints. A case study of a plastic manufacturing plant using the generic model library is also presented, in which the results of two simulation with different electricity prices are compared and the behavior of the model can be assessed. The results show that the model provides an optimal scheduling of the manufacturing system according to the variations in the electricity prices, and ensures an optimal control for utilities and energy systems needed for the production.
The twin concept is increasingly used for optimization tasks in the context of Industry 4.0 and digitization. The twin concept can also help small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) to exploit their energy flexibility potential and to achieve added value by appropriate energy marketing. At the same time, this use of flexibility helps to realize a climate-neutral energy supply with high shares of renewable energies. The digital twin reflects real production, power flows and market influences as a computer model, which makes it possible to simulate and optimize on-site interventions and interactions with the energy market without disturbing the real production processes. This paper describes the development of a generic model library that maps flexibility-relevant components and processes of SME, thus simplifying the creation of a digital twin. The paper also includes the development of an experimental twin consisting of SME hardware components and a PLC-based SCADA system. The experimental twin provides a laboratory environment in which the digital twin can be tested, further developed and demonstrated on a laboratory scale. Concrete implementations of such a digital twin and experimental twin are described as examples.
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) has been playing a key role in the electricity sector for several decades, due to the need for aligning energy generation with the demand and the financial risk connected with forecasting errors. Following the top-down approach, forecasts are calculated for aggregated load profiles, meaning the sum of singular loads from consumers belonging to a balancing group. Due to the emerging flexible loads, there is an increasing relevance for STLF of individual factories. These load profiles are typically more stochastic compared to aggregated ones, which imposes new requirements to forecasting methods and tools with a bottom-up approach. The increasing digitalization in industry with enhanced data availability as well as smart metering are enablers for improved load forecasts. There is a need for STLF tools processing live data with a high temporal resolution in the minute range. Furthermore, behin-the-meter (BTM) data from various sources like submetering and production planning data should be integrated in the models. In this case, STLF is becoming a big data problem so that machine learning (ML) methods are required. The research project “GaIN” investigates the improvement of the STLF quality of an energy utility using BTM data and innovative ML models. This paper describes the project scope, proposes a detailed definition for a benchmark and evaluates the readiness of existing STLF methods to fulfil the described requirements as a reviewing paper.
The review highlights that recent STLF investigations focus on ML methods. Especially hybrid models gain more and more importance. ML can outperform classical methods in terms of automation degree and forecasting accuracy. Nevertheless, the potential for improving forecasting accuracy by the use of ML models depends on the underlying data and the types of input variables. The described methods in the analyzed publications only partially fulfil the tool requirements for STLF on company level. There is still a need to develop suitable ML methods to integrate the expanded data base in order to improve load forecasts on company level.