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Prediction of Claims in Export Credit Finance: A Comparison of Four Machine Learning Techniques
(2020)
This study evaluates four machine learning (ML) techniques (Decision Trees (DT), Random Forests (RF), Neural Networks (NN) and Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN)) on their ability to accurately predict export credit insurance claims. Additionally, we compare the performance of the ML techniques against a simple benchmark (BM) heuristic. The analysis is based on the utilisation of a dataset provided by the Berne Union, which is the most comprehensive collection of export credit insurance data and has been used in only two scientific studies so far. All ML techniques performed relatively well in predicting whether or not claims would be incurred, and, with limitations, in predicting the order of magnitude of the claims. No satisfactory results were achieved predicting actual claim ratios. RF performed significantly better than DT, NN and PNN against all prediction tasks, and most reliably carried their validation performance forward to test performance.
Führungskräfte deutscher Unternehmen sehen sich gegenwärtig zwei branchenübergreifenden Anforderungen gegenüber: Innovationen und Digitalisierung. Handelt es sich bei Innovationen um ein wissenschaftlich gut durchdrungenes Thema, zeichnen sich die neuen Möglichkeiten der Digitalisierung erst in Umrissen ab. Einig ist man sich darin, dass die Digitalisierung nicht nur einen bestimmten Unternehmensteil betrifft, sondern das ganze Unternehmen übergreift. So eröffnet sie nicht nur neue Möglichkeiten für einzelne Teilfunktionen, sondern auch Verbesserungen bei funktionsübergreifenden Aufgaben. Wie diese genutzt werden können, zeigen die Autoren und Autorinnen dieses Sammelbandes. Sie präsentieren neue Denkansätze und konkrete Entscheidungshilfen für Unternehmen, die in einer digitalen Wirtschaft innovativ bleiben wollen.
This seminar paper examines government measures to support export-oriented companies in Belgium. After a short overview of the Belgian economy and the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, the paper introduces the available government measures for exporters. In particular, the role of Credendo as a Belgian export-credit insurance company will be discussed, and its measures will be examined in more detail. In addition, federal measures of the Belgian government will be identified, and a summary of the most important regional measures will be provided. The entirety of government measures available to export-oriented companies will be reviewed and options for the future activities of export-oriented companies will be pointed out.
The COVID-19 pandemic has the global economy under control. This paper deals with the economic consequences in Germany and shows the measures taken by the German government to support especially small and medium-sized export companies. The structure of the German economy and foreign trade promotion are explained as a basis. After considering the government's support measures, an evaluation of country comparisons shows that there is still potential for further measures, especially in direct lending and debt moratorium. The analysis is based on quantitative data from surveys and qualitative results from interviews with relevant ministries and market participants as well as recent publications.
The coronavirus affects the strongly export-oriented Swiss economy in a situation where political and economic developments are already making the cross-border exchange of goods and services difficult. For this reason, the question arises of how Switzerland can maintain or strengthen its position in global competition in the export business during an unprecedented period of crisis such as the current one.
In order to find an answer to this question, this paper critically examines the existing government support measures for Swiss exporters in times of COVID-19. The fact that Switzerland has so far not taken any specific support measures for exporters raises the actual research question of whether there is a specific necessity and demand for a special export promotion. To answer this research question, various expert opinions are compared and overall conclusions are drawn. By rapidly introducing and adapting the already existing instruments – liquidity assistance and an expansion of short-time work benefits – the federal government was able to ensure the survival of many companies. According to the authors of this paper, this focus of government support in times of crisis is just right for a small national economy in the short term and therefore preferable to a specific support of exporters. Nevertheless, given the high relative importance of foreign trade for Switzerland’s overall economic performance, there can be no recovery of national economy without a recovery of foreign trade.
This paper gives an overview of the impact that the corona pandemic has on the export industry in Canada and analyzes the different Canadian government measures for exporters. In addition, the measures are subsequently evaluated in order to identify if the support measures can help Canadian exporters to overcome the crisis. The basis of this paper are semi-structured expert interviews with experts from the financial sector, scientific literature and studies. The results have shown that the COVID-19 pandemic has a major impact on Canada’s export economy and it’s GDP. Trade is only possible to a limited extent, as many borders are closed. The Canadian government reacted with an economic response plan to support Canadian individuals and businesses. This paper depicts and assesses the most eligible measures for export companies.
The aim of this essay is to analyse and evaluate the Italian government measures for exporters in response to COVID-19. The unexpected, rapid and hardly predictable consequences of the pandemic paralyzed the entire globe. For a long time, Italy was the epicentre of the virus, which caused severe damage in the Italian export economy dropping temporarily more than 40%. The Italian government reacted exemplary fast and took multiple countermeasures of high extent especially through the Italian export credit agency SACE. On the one hand, the internationally compared broad structure of SACE was a huge advantage, which allowed to release quickly numerous measures. On the other hand, there is room for improvement regarding the accessibility of measure-related information, which has been partially only available in Italian. Furthermore, there is a remarkable risk resulting from the combination of the high monetary effort to enable the numerous measures, the difficult financial situation of the Italian government and the unpredictability of the COVID-19 consequences.