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Short-term load forecasting (STLF) has been playing a key role in the electricity sector for several decades, due to the need for aligning energy generation with the demand and the financial risk connected with forecasting errors. Following the top-down approach, forecasts are calculated for aggregated load profiles, meaning the sum of singular loads from consumers belonging to a balancing group. Due to the emerging flexible loads, there is an increasing relevance for STLF of individual factories. These load profiles are typically more stochastic compared to aggregated ones, which imposes new requirements to forecasting methods and tools with a bottom-up approach. The increasing digitalization in industry with enhanced data availability as well as smart metering are enablers for improved load forecasts. There is a need for STLF tools processing live data with a high temporal resolution in the minute range. Furthermore, behin-the-meter (BTM) data from various sources like submetering and production planning data should be integrated in the models. In this case, STLF is becoming a big data problem so that machine learning (ML) methods are required. The research project “GaIN” investigates the improvement of the STLF quality of an energy utility using BTM data and innovative ML models. This paper describes the project scope, proposes a detailed definition for a benchmark and evaluates the readiness of existing STLF methods to fulfil the described requirements as a reviewing paper.
The review highlights that recent STLF investigations focus on ML methods. Especially hybrid models gain more and more importance. ML can outperform classical methods in terms of automation degree and forecasting accuracy. Nevertheless, the potential for improving forecasting accuracy by the use of ML models depends on the underlying data and the types of input variables. The described methods in the analyzed publications only partially fulfil the tool requirements for STLF on company level. There is still a need to develop suitable ML methods to integrate the expanded data base in order to improve load forecasts on company level.
Protecting software from illegal access, intentional modification or reverse engineering is an inherently difficult practical problem involving code obfuscation techniques and real-time cryptographic protection of code. In traditional systems a secure element (the "dongle") is used to protect software. However, this approach suffers from several technical and economical drawbacks such as the dongle being lost or broken.
We present a system that provides such dongles as a cloud service, and more importantly, provides the required cryptographic material to control access to software functionality in real-time.
This system is developed as part of an ongoing nationally funded research project and is now entering a first trial stage with stakeholders from different industrial sectors.
Blockchain frameworks enable the immutable storage of data. A still open practical question is the so called "oracle" problem, i.e. the way how real world data is actually transferred into and out of a blockchain while preserving its integrity. We present a case study that demonstrates how to use an existing industrial strength secure element for cryptographic software protection (Wibu CmDongle / the "dongle") to function as such a hardware-based oracle for the Hyperledger blockchain framework. Our scenario is that of a dentist having leased a 3D printer. This printer is initially supplied with an amount of x printing units. With each print action the local unit counter on the attached dongle is decreased and in parallel a unit counter is maintained in the Hyperledger-based blockchain. Once a threshold is met, the printer will stop working (by means of the cryptographically protected invocation of the local print method). The blockchain is configured in such a way that chaincode is executed to increase the units again automatically (and essentially trigger any payment processes). Once this has happened, the new unit counter value will be passed from the blockchain to the local dongle and thus allow for further execution of print jobs.
The development of secure software systems is of ever-increasing importance. While software companies often invest large amounts of resources into the upkeeping and general security properties of large-scale applications when in production, they appear to neglect utilizing threat modeling in the earlier stages of the software development lifecycle. When applied during the design phase of development, and continuously throughout development iterations, threat modeling can help to establish a "Secure by Design" approach. This approach allows issues relating to IT security to be found early during development, reducing the need for later improvement – and thus saving resources in the long term. In this paper the current state of threat modeling is investigated. This investigation drove the derivation of requirements for the development of a new threat modelling framework and tool, called OVVL. OVVL utilizes concepts of established threat modeling methodologies, as well as functionality not available in existing solutions.
The increase in households with grid connected Photovoltaic (PV) battery system poses challenge for the grid due to high PV feed-in as a result of mismatch in energy production and load demand. The purpose of this paper is to show how a Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy could be applied to an existing grid connected household with PV battery system such that the use of battery is maximized and at the same time peaks in PV energy and load demand are reduced. The benefits of this strategy are to allow increase in PV hosting capacity and load hosting capacity of the grid without the need for external signals from the grid operator. The paper includes the optimal control problem formulation to achieve the peak shaving goals along with the experiment set up and preliminary experiment results. The goals of the experiment were to verify the hardware and software interface to implement the MPC and as well to verify the ability of the MPC to deal with the weather forecast deviation. A prediction correction has also been introduced for a short time horizon of one hour within this MPC strategy to estimate the PV output power behavior.