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Ein Importstopp russischer Energieträger nach Deutschland wird derzeit vermehrt diskutiert. Wir wollen die Diskussion unterstützen, indem wir einen Weg zeigen, wie das Elektrizitätssystem in Deutschland kurzfristig mit geringen Energieimporten auskommt und welche Maßnahmen notwendig sind, um die Klimaschutzziele trotzdem einzuhalten. Die Ergebnisse eines solchen Energiewendeszenarios mit reduzierter Importabhängigkeit werden mit dem Energiesystemmodell MyPyPSA-Ger berechnet. Die wichtigsten Erkenntnisse sind, dass ein zügiger Ausbau Erneuerbarer Energien und von Speichertechnologien • die Abhängigkeit des deutschen Elektrizitätssystems von Energieimporten deutlich reduziert. • auch langfristig keine wesentlichen Importe der Energieträger Erdgas, Steinkohle und Mineralöl nach sich zieht. • über die Klimaziele der Bundesregierung hinaus das 1,5-Grad-Ziel im Elektrizitätssystem erreicht wird.
GaIN - Gewinnbringende Partizipation der mittelständischen Industrie am Energiemarkt der Zukunft
(2024)
Der vorliegende Bericht dokumentiert die Arbeiten und Ergebnisse des Forschungsprojekts GaIN – Gewinnbringende Partizipation der mittelständischen Industrie am Energiemarkt der Zukunft (Laufzeit 01.12.2019 bis 30.11.2022), das vom Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz „BMWK“ unter den Kennzeichen 03EI6019E gefördert wurde.
Das Ziel des Projektes bestand darin, durch die Digitalisierung der (mittelständischen) Industrie die Unternehmen zu befähigen aktiv gewinnbringend am volatilen Energiemarkt der Zukunft zu partizipieren.
Global energy demand is still on an increase during the last decade, with a lot of impact on the climate change due to the intensive use of conventional fossil-based fuels power plants to cover this demand. Most recently, leaders of the globe met in 2015 to come out with the Paris Agreement, stating that the countries will start to take a more responsible and effective behaviour toward the global warming and climate change issues. Many studies have discussed how the future energy system will look like with respecting the countries’ targets and limits of greenhouse gases and their CO2 emissions. However, these studies rarely discussed the industry sector in detail even though it is one of the major role players in the energy sector. Moreover, many studies have simulated and modelled the energy system with huge jumps of intervals in terms of years and environmental goals. In the first part of this study, a model will be developed for the German electrical grid with high spatial and temporal resolutions and different scenarios of it will be analysed meticulously on shorter periods (annual optimization), with different flexibilities and used technologies and degrees of innovations within each scenario. Moreover, the challenge in this research is to adequately map the diverse and different characteristics of the medium-sized industrial sector. In order to be able to take a first step in assessing the relevance of the industrial sector in Germany for climate protection goals, the industrial sector will be mapped in PyPSA-Eur (an open-source model data set of the European energy system at the level of the transmission network) by detailing the demand for different types of industry and assigning flexibilities to the industrial types. Synthetically generated load profiles of various industrial types are available. Flexibilities in the industrial sector are described by the project partner Fraunhofer IPA in the GaIN project and can be used. Using a scenario analysis, the development of the industrial sector and the use of flexibilities are then to be assessed quantitatively.
This paper will introduce the open-source model MyPyPSA-Ger, a myopic optimization model developed to represent the German energy system with a detailed mapping of the electricity sector, on a highly disaggregated level, spatially and temporally, with regional differences and investment limitations. Furthermore, this paper will give new outlooks on the German federal government 2050 emissions goals of the electricity sector to become greenhouse gas neutral by proposing new CO2 allowance strategies. Moreover, the regional differences in Germany will be discussed, their role and impact on the energy transition, and which regions and states will drive the renewable energy utilization forward.
Following a scenario-based analysis, the results point out the major keystones of the energy transition path from 2020 to 2050. Solar, onshore wind, and gas-fired power plants will play a fundamental role in the future electricity systems. Biomass, run of river, and offshore wind technologies will be utilized in the system as base-load generation technologies. Solar and onshore wind will be installed almost everywhere in Germany. However, due to the nature of Germany’s weather and geographical features, the southern and northern regions will play a more important role in the energy transition.
Higher CO2 allowance costs will help achieve the 1.5-degree-target of the electricity system and will allow for a rapid transition. Moreover, the more expensive, and the earlier the CO2 tax is applied to the system, the less it will cost for the energy transition, and the more emissions will be saved throughout the transition period. An earlier phase-out of coal power plants is not necessary with high CO2 taxes, due to the change in power plant’s unit commitment, as they prioritize gas before coal power plants. Having moderate to low CO2 allowance cost or no clear transition policy will be more expensive and the CO2 budget will be exceeded. Nonetheless, even with no policy, renewables still dominate the energy mix of the future.
However, maintaining the maximum historical installation rates of both national and regional levels, with the current emissions reduction strategy, will not be enough to reach the level of climate-neutral electricity system. Therefore, national and regional installation requirements to achieve the federal government emission reduction goals are determined. Energy strategies and decision makers will have to resolve great challenges in order to stay in line with the 1.5-degree-target.
An import ban of Russian energy sources to Germany is currently being increasingly discussed. We want to support the discussion by showing a way how the electricity system in Germany can manage low energy imports in the short term and which measures are necessary to still meet the climate protection targets. In this paper, we examine the impact of a complete stop of Russian fossil fuel imports on the electricity sector in Germany, and how this will affect the climate coals of an earlier coal phase-out and climate neutrality by 2045.
Following a scenario-based analysis, the results gave a point of view on how much would be needed to completely rely on the scarce non-renewable energy resources in Germany. Huge amounts of investments would be needed in order to ensure a secure supply of electricity, in both generation energy sources (RES) and energy storage systems (ESS). The key findings are that a rapid expansion of renewables and storage technologies will significantly reduce the dependence of the German electricity system on energy imports. The huge integration of renewable energy does not entail any significant imports of the energy sources natural gas, hard coal, and mineral oil, even in the long term. The results showed that a ban on fossil fuel imports from Russia outlines huge opportunities to go beyond the German government's climate targets, where the 1.5-degree-target is achieved in the electricity system.
Most recently, the federal government in Germany published new climate goals in order reach climate neutrality by 2045. This paper demonstrates a path to a cost optimal energy supply system for the German power grid until the year 2050. With special regard to regionality, the system is based on yearly myopic optimization with the required energy system transformation measures and the associated system costs. The results point out, that energy storage systems (ESS) are fundamental for renewables integration in order to have a feasible energy transition. Moreover, the investment in storage technologies increased the usage of the solar and wind technologies. Solar energy investments were highly accompanied with the installation of short-term battery storage. Longer-term storage technologies, such as H2, were accompanied with high installations of wind technologies. The results pointed out that hydrogen investments are expected to overrule short-term batteries if their cost continues to decrease sharply. Moreover, with a strong presence of ESS in the energy system, biomass energy is expected to be completely ruled out from the energy mix. With the current emission reduction strategy and without a strong presence of large scale ESS into the system, it is unlikely that the Paris agreement 2° C target by 2050 will be achieved, let alone the 1.5° C.
With recent developments in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, many are discussing about Germany’s dependency on fossil fuel imports in its energy system, and how can the country proceed with reducing that dependency. With its wide-ranging consumption sectors, the electricity sector comes as the perfect choice to start with. Recent reports showed that the German federal government is already intending to have a fully renewable electricity by 2035 while exploiting all possible clean power options. This was published in the federal government’s climate emergency program (Easter Package) in early 2022. The aim of this package is to initiate a rapid transition and decarbonization of the electricity sector. The Easter Package expects an enormous growth of renewable energies to a completely new level, with already at least 80% renewable gross energy consumption, with extensive and broad deployment of different generation technologies on various scales. This paper will discuss this ambitious plan and outline some insights into this huge and rapidly increasing step, and show how much will Germany need in order to achieve this huge milestone towards a fully green supply of the electricity sector. Different scenarios and shares of renewables will be investigated in order to elaborate on preponed climate-neutral goal of the electricity sector by 2035. The results pointed out some promising aspects in achieving a 100% renewable power, with massive investments in both generation and storage technologies.