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Since 2003, most European countries established heat health warning systems to alert the population to heat load. Heat health warning systems are based on predicted meteorological conditions outdoors. But the majority of the European population spends a substantial amount of time indoors, and indoor thermal conditions can differ substantially from outdoor conditions. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) extended the existing heat health warning system (HHWS) with a thermal building simulation model to consider heat load indoors. In this study, the thermal building simulation model is used to simulate a standardized building representing a modern nursing home, because elderly and sick people are most sensitive to heat stress. Different types of natural ventilation were simulated. Based on current and future test reference years, changes in the future heat load indoors were analyzed. Results show differences between the various ventilation options and the possibility to minimize the thermal heat stress during summer by using an appropriate ventilation method. Nighttime ventilation for indoor thermal comfort is most important. A fully opened window at nighttime and the 2-h ventilation in the morning and evening are more sufficient to avoid heat stress than a tilted window at nighttime and the 1-h ventilation in the morning and the evening. Especially the ventilation in the morning seems to be effective to keep the heat load indoors low. Comparing the results for the current and the future test reference years, an increase of heat stress on all ventilation types can be recognized.
The German Weather Service (DWD) releases a heat warning, when the weather forecast provides a warm, humid, sunny, and windless weather condition during the next days. The heat stress is calculated by the so called Klima-Michel model. If the apparent air temperature exceeds ca. 32°C / 38°C, there is a strong / extreme heat stress. The smallest forecast area is each administrative district. As people (and especially the vulnerable population) stay most of the time indoors, the heat health warning system was extended by the prediction of heat stress in typical rooms. Therewith it is feasible to forecast the heat stress using a combination of the outdoor and indoor heat stress. The prediction for the indoor heat stress is based on the same weather forecast like the Heat Health Warning Systems (HHWS).and calculates the heat stress by the PMV-model (predicted mean vote). Based on a sophisticated data analysis and simulation study, realistic but summer-critical living situations were defined and implemented in the building simulation program ESP-r. As the simulation runs especially for extreme weather conditions, a simplified building model cannot be used. Standardized input/output routines and an adaptive handover of start values provide for short run times for each forecast area. Good building designs and urban planning provide effective measures to reduce heat stress in cities. However, we have to also pay attention to the present building stock under climate change and a higher heat-wave risk. The extended German HHWS provide information for the emergency services to support the social assistants during heat waves.