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In a dynamic global landscape, the role of UK Export Finance (UKEF) and other export credit agencies (ECAs) has never been more important. Access to finance is critical for exporters as it enables them to invest in production, expand operations, manage cash flow and mitigate trade risks. However, businesses face challenges in securing export finance and trade credit insurance as geopolitical and trade megatrends lead to increased political, market and credit risks. Drawing on qualitative data from 35 semi-structured interviews and expert discussions and based on the Futures Triangle analytical framework, this white paper analyses the geopolitical and trade megatrends that UKEF and other ECAs will face in the coming years. It presents novel findings about the implications for ECA mandates, strategies, products and operations: The evolution of mandates towards a “growth promoter”, the need to further scale up operations, the use of big data and artificial intelligence for risk analysis and forecasting, and the need to balance multiple and conflicting priorities, including export growth, support for small and medium-sized exporters, inclusive trade, climate action, and positive impact in developing markets.
This report examines exporters’ challenges and possible solutions for public intervention to promote foreign trade. Based on fieldwork conducted in Georgia, we explore which policy approaches can help to stimulate Georgian exports further. Our outcomes show that exporters face substantial barriers such as navigating complex trade regulations, lack of knowledge about target markets, trade finance gaps, as well as new export promotion programs (EPPs) in competitor countries. Other upper-middle-income countries can learn from our results that exporters can significantly benefit from a comprehensive export promotion strategy combined with an ecosystem-based “team” approach. EPPs related to awareness and capacity building in Georgia should be part of this strategy, focusing on challenges such as a lack of knowledge about trade practices and international business skills. Other EPPs must help to mitigate related market failures, as information gathering is costly, and firms have no incentive to share this information with competitors. Furthermore, targeted marketing support and customer matchmaking can answer Georgian exporters’ challenges, such as lack of market access and low sector visibility. Our results also show that public intervention through financial support and risk mitigation is essential for firms with an international orientation. The high-quality, rich outcomes provide significant value for other upper-middle-income countries by exploring the example of Georgia’s contemporary circumstances in an in-depth manner based on extensive interviews and document analysis. Limitations include that our work primarily relies on qualitative data and further research could involve a quantitative study with a diverse range of sectors.
Public export credits and trade insurance require a global framework of institutions, rules and regulations to avoid subsidies and a race to the bottom. The extensive modernisation of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits (Arrangement) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development intends to re-level the playing field. This Practitioner Commentary describes the demand for adequate government interventions, considers the need for the reform and discusses key aspects of the new Arrangement. We argue that there is a breakthrough in several important areas such as tenors, repayment terms and green finance. However, we also find that the modernisation falls short in areas such as the interplay between different rulebooks, pre-shipment instruments' regulations and climate action.
As the world economy rapidly decarbonises to meet global climate goals, the export credit sector must keep pace. Countries representing over two-thirds of global GDP have now set net zero targets, as have hundreds of private financial institutions. Public and private initiatives are now working to develop new standards and methodologies for shifting investment portfolios to decarbonisation pathways based on science.
However, export credit agencies (ECAs) are only at the beginning stages of this seismic transformation. On the one hand, the net zero transition creates risks to existing business models and clients for the many ECAs, while on the other, it creates a significant opportunity for ECAs to refocus their support to help countries and trade partners meet their climate targets. ECAs can best take advantage of this transition, and minimise its risks, by setting net zero targets and adopting credible plans to decarbonise their portfolios. Collaboration across the sector can be a powerful tool for advancing this goal.
Financing trade and development sustainably will be crucial for Africa. Enhanced collaboration between multilateral development banks, development finance institutions and ECAs could greatly enhance intra-regional trade. Furthermore, setting up a ‘level playing field’ on the continent will allow governments to make strategic interventions for successful export credits and trade finance solutions, fostering growth through trade. African trade is already showing signs of rebounding from the coronavirus- induced recession. Through concerted, co-operative and continent-wide efforts, drawing on the knowledge and resources of all types of institutions and policy experts, Africa will continue to grow confidently and quickly into its increasingly important role as an engine of economic growth and global trade.
The global pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 requires governments to implement and strengthen climate policies as global emissions are reaching record level. Climate finance plays a crucial role in the net zero transition. It refers to local, national or transnational financing seeking to support mitigation and adaptation actions that address climate change. Public export-import banks (EXIMs) and government export credit agencies (ECAs) are highly influential actors for climate action. Although there is no consensus among EXIMs and ECAs on how to define climate finance, 20 institutions assessed in this report give evidence that they significantly support climate action related transactions: EXIM and ECA financing and insurance amounted to EUR 6.7-8.4 billion in 2020, much more than estimated by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI). However, the results also show that EXIM and ECA lending and insurance activities must rise substantially in order to contribute to the climate finance volumes required by 2030 as estimated by CPI. To retain their current proportion relative to other climate finance flows, assessed institutions would need to increase their climate financing 6.8 times to between EUR 45.3 billion and EUR 57.4 billion by 2030.
With economic weight shifting toward net zero, now is the time for ECAs, Exim-Banks, and PRIs to lead. Despite previous success, aligning global economic governance to climate goals requires additional activities across export finance and investment insurance institutions. The new research project initiated by Oxford University, ClimateWorks Foundation, and Mission 2020 including other practitioners and academics from institutions such as Atradius DSB, Columbia University, EDC, FMO and Offenburg University focuses on reshaping future trade and investment governance in light of climate action. The idea of a ‘Berne Union Net Zero Club’ is an important item in a potential package of reforms. This can include realigning mandates and corporate strategies, principles of intervention, as well as ECA, Exim-Bank and PRI operating models in order to accelerate net zero transformation. Full transparency regarding Berne Union members’ activities would be an excellent starting point. We invite all interested parties in the sector to come together to chart our own path to net zero
The research paper provides important findings about the development, difficulties and perception of the support measures for exporters introduced by the Austrian government in times of COVID-19 crisis. Based on a literature review using secondary data, eight qualitative interviews were conducted with experts from the Austrian economy and government, among them the Austrian ECA ‘Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG’. To balance the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Austrian economy, a broad coverage with financing instruments for a wide range of target groups was established. Although the support measures have been well received by companies, insolvencies cannot completely be prevented. Nevertheless, the actual effects are not yet predictable and need to be assessed in further research at a later point in time.
Wissenschaftler des Institute for Trade and Innovation (IfTI) an der Hochschule Offenburg haben kürzlich Benchmarking-Analysen staatlicher Exportfinanzierungsinstrumente insbesondere in OECD-Ländern durchgeführt. In zwei Forschungsprojekten mit Fokus auf Dänemark und Norwegen wurde hierfür ein wertschöpfungsorientiertes Bewertungsmodell erarbeitet. Damit kann nun auf Basis von wissenschaftlich anerkannten Analyseverfahren gemessen werden, wie erfolgreich die staatliche Exportfinanzierung im Vergleich mit anderen Ländern ist.