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Prediction of Claims in Export Credit Finance: A Comparison of Four Machine Learning Techniques
(2020)
This study evaluates four machine learning (ML) techniques (Decision Trees (DT), Random Forests (RF), Neural Networks (NN) and Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN)) on their ability to accurately predict export credit insurance claims. Additionally, we compare the performance of the ML techniques against a simple benchmark (BM) heuristic. The analysis is based on the utilisation of a dataset provided by the Berne Union, which is the most comprehensive collection of export credit insurance data and has been used in only two scientific studies so far. All ML techniques performed relatively well in predicting whether or not claims would be incurred, and, with limitations, in predicting the order of magnitude of the claims. No satisfactory results were achieved predicting actual claim ratios. RF performed significantly better than DT, NN and PNN against all prediction tasks, and most reliably carried their validation performance forward to test performance.
A disturbed synchronization of the ventricular contraction can cause a highly developed systolic heart failure in affected patients with reduction of the left ventricular ejection fraction, which can often be explained by a diseased left bundle branch block (LBBB). If medication remains unresponsive, the concerned patients will be treated with a cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) system. The aim of this study was to integrate His-bundle pacing into the Offenburg heart rhythm model in order to visualize the electrical pacing field generated by His-Bundle-Pacing. Modelling and electrical field simulation activities were performed with the software CST (Computer Simulation Technology) from Dessault Systèms. CRT with biventricular pacing is to be achieved by an apical right ventricular electrode and an additional left ventricular electrode, which is floated into the coronary vein sinus. The non-responder rate of the CRT therapy is about one third of the CRT patients. His- Bundle-Pacing represents a physiological alternative to conventional cardiac pacing and cardiac resynchronization. An electrode implanted in the His-bundle emits a stronger electrical pacing field than the electrical pacing field of conventional cardiac pacemakers. The pacing of the Hisbundle was performed by the Medtronic Select Secure 3830 electrode with pacing voltage amplitudes of 3 V, 2 V and 1,5 V in combination with a pacing pulse duration of 1 ms. Compared to conventional pacemaker pacing, His-bundle pacing is capable of bridging LBBB conduction disorders in the left ventricle. The His-bundle pacing electrical field is able to spread via the physiological pathway in the right and left ventricles for CRT with a narrow QRS-complex in the surface ECG.
The TriRhenaTech alliance presents a collection of accepted papers of the cancelled tri-national 'Upper-Rhine Artificial Intelligence Symposium' planned for 13th May 2020 in Karlsruhe. The TriRhenaTech alliance is a network of universities in the Upper-Rhine Trinational Metropolitan Region comprising of the German universities of applied sciences in Furtwangen, Kaiserslautern, Karlsruhe, and Offenburg, the Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Loerrach, the French university network Alsace Tech (comprised of 14 'grandes écoles' in the fields of engineering, architecture and management) and the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland. The alliance's common goal is to reinforce the transfer of knowledge, research, and technology, as well as the cross-border mobility of students.
For the standard ISO 16842 cruciform test specimen, stresses obtained from the gauge area are far below the ultimate tensile strength due to high stress concentrations at the slit ends which lead to premature failure. Objective: To introduce a new cruciform specimen design which has been optimized with respect to the determination of yield surfaces. Methods: The proposed design differs from the ISO standard by an additional thinning of the gauge area and wider slits in the arms to avoid stress singularities. Compared to other cruciform test piece designs found in the literature, the stress distribution is still homogeneous and there is no need to reduce the size of the gauge area, thanks to the specimen’s well-balanced proportions. Results: Biaxial tensile tests have been conducted with aluminium 5754 alloy samples of different thicknesses. For the standard cruciform test piece, the maximum strain achieved at the gauge area is only 25% of the fracture strain. The optimized cruciform test piece can attain about 66% of the fracture strain before breaking. Conclusions: The optimized specimen design enables the measurement of yield surfaces at higher stress levels. In case of other materials such as elastomers, the slit length has be to adjusted accordingly.
OVVL (the Open Weakness and Vulnerability Modeller) is a tool and methodology to support threat modeling in the early stages of the secure software development lifecycle. We provide an overview of OVVL (https://ovvl.org), its data model and browser-based UI. We equally provide a discussion of initial experiments on how identified threats in the design phase can be aligned with later activities in the software lifecycle (issue management and security testing).
Threat Modelling is an accepted technique to identify general threats as early as possible in the software development lifecycle. Previous work of ours did present an open-source framework and web-based tool (OVVL) for automating threat analysis on software architectures using STRIDE. However, one open problem is that available threat catalogues are either too general or proprietary with respect to a certain domain (e.g. .Net). Another problem is that a threat analyst should not only be presented (repeatedly) with a list of all possible threats, but already with some automated support for prioritizing these. This paper presents an approach to dynamically generate individual threat catalogues on basis of the established CWE as well as related CVE databases. Roughly 60% of this threat catalogue generation can be done by identifying and matching certain key values. To map the remaining 40% of our data (~50.000 CVE entries) we train a text classification model by using the already mapped 60% of our dataset to perform a supervised machine-learning based text classification. The generated entire dataset allows us to identify possible threats for each individual architectural element and automatically provide an initial prioritization. Our dataset as well as a supporting Jupyter notebook are openly available.
While prospect of tracking mobile devices' users is widely discussed all over European countries to counteract COVID-19 propagation, we propose a Bloom filter based construction providing users' location privacy and preventing mass surveillance.
We apply a solution based on Bloom filters data structure that allows a third party, a government agency, to perform some privacy-preserving set relations on a mobile telco's access logfile.
By computing set relations, the government agency, given the knowledge of two identified persons, has an instrument that provides a (possible) infection chain from the initial to the final infected user no matter at which location on a worldwide scale they are.
The benefit of our approach is that intermediate possible infected users can be identified and subsequently contacted by the agency. With such approach, we state that solely identities of possible infected users will be revealed and location privacy of others will be preserved. To this extent, it meets General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)requirements in this area.
Power systems are increasingly built from distributed generation units and smart consumers that are able to react to grid conditions. Managing this large number of decentralized electricity sources and flexible loads represent a very huge optimization problem. Both from the regulatory and the computational perspective, no one central coordinator can optimize this overall system. Decentralized control mechanisms can, however, distribute the optimization task through price signals or market-based mechanisms. This chapter presents the concepts that enable a decentralized control of demand and supply while enhancing overall efficiency of the electricity system. It highlights both technological and business challenges that result from the realization of these concepts, and presents the state-of-the-art in the respective domains.
Restoring hand motion to people experiencing amputation, paralysis, and stroke is a critical area of research and development. While electrode-based systems that use input from the brain or muscle have proven successful, these systems tend to be expensive and di¨cult to learn. One group of researchers is exploring the use of augmented reality (AR) as a new way of controlling hand prostheses. A camera mounted on eyeglasses tracks LEDs on a prosthetic to execute opening and closing commands using one of two different AR systems. One system uses a rectangular command window to control motion: crossing horizontally signals “open” along one direction and “close” in the opposite direction. The second system uses a circular command window: once control is enabled, gripping strength can be controlled by the direction of head motion. While the visual system remains to be tested with patients, its low cost, ease of use, and lack of electrodes make the device a promising solution for restoring hand motion.
The PHOTOPUR project aims to develop a photocatalytic process as a type of AOPs (Advanced Oxidation Processes) for the elimination of plant protection products (PPP) of the cleaning water used to wash sprayers. At INES a PV based energy supply for the photocatalytic cleaning system was developed within the framework of two bachelor theses and assembled as a demonstration unit. Then the system was step by step extended with further process automation features and pushed to a remote operating device. The final system is now available as a mobile unit mounted on a lab table. The latest step was the photocatalytic reactor module which completed the first PHOTOPUR prototype. The system is actually undergoing an intensive testing phase with performance checks at the consortium partners. First results give an overview about the successful operation.
Optimisation based economic despatch of real-world complex energy systems demands reduced order and continuously differentiable component models that can represent their part-load behaviour and dynamic responses. A literature study of existing modelling methods and the necessary characteristics the models should meet for their successful application in model predictive control of a polygeneration system are presented. Deriving from that, a rational modelling procedure using engineering principles and assumptions to develop simplified component models is applied. The models are quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated against experimental data and their efficacy for application in a building automation and control architecture is established.
Cooling towers or recoolers are one of the major consumers of electricity in a HVAC plant. The implementation and analysis of advanced control methods in a practical application and its comparison with conventional controllers is necessary to establish a framework for their feasibility especially in the field of decentralised energy systems. A standard industrial controller, a PID and a model based controller were developed and tested in an experimental set-up using market-ready components. The characteristics of these controllers such as settling time, control difference, and frequency of control actions are compared based on the monitoring data. Modern controllers demonstrated clear advantages in terms of energy savings and higher accuracy and a model based controller was easier to set-up than a PID.
Passive hybridization refers to a parallel connection of photovoltaic and battery cells on the direct current level without any active controllers or inverters. We present the first study of a lithium-ion battery cell connected in parallel to a string of four or five serially-connected photovoltaic cells. Experimental investigations were performed using a modified commercial photovoltaic module and a lithium titanate battery pouch cell, representing an overall 41.7 W-peak (photovoltaic)/36.8 W-hour (battery) passive hybrid system. Systematic and detailed monitoring of this system over periods of several days with different load scenarios was carried out. A scaled dynamic synthetic load representing a typical profile of a single-family house was successfully supplied with 100 % self-sufficiency over a period of two days. The system shows dynamic, fully passive self-regulation without maximum power point tracking and without battery management system. The feasibility of a photovoltaic/lithium-ion battery passive hybrid system could therefore be demonstrated.
Communication protocols enable information exchange between different information systems. If protocol descriptions for these systems are not available, they can be reverse-engineered for interoperability or security reasons. This master thesis describes the analysis of such a proprietary binary protocol, named the DVRIP or Dahua private protocol from Dahua Technology. The analysis contains the identification of the DVRIP protocol header format, security mechanisms and vulnerabilities inside the protocol implementation. With the revealing insights of the protocol, an increase of the overall security is achieved. This thesis builds the foundation for further targeted security analyses.
Well-designed and informative product presentations can support consumers in making purchase decisions. There are plenty of facts and details about a product of interest. However, also emotions are an important aspect for the purchase decision. The unique visualization opportunities of virtual reality (VR) can give users of VR applications the feeling of being there (telepresence). The applications can intensely engage them in a flow experience, comprising the four dimensions of enjoyment, curiosity, focused attention and control. In this work, we claim that VR product presentations can create subjective product experiences for consumers and motivate them to reuse this innovative type of product presentation in the future, by immersing them in a virtual world and causing them to interact with it. To verify the conceptual model a study was conducted with 551 participants who explored a VR hotel application. The results indicate that VR product presentations evoke positive emotions among consumers. The virtual experience made potential customers focus their attention on the virtual world and aroused their curiosity about getting more information about the product in an enjoyable way. In contrast to the theoretical assumption, control did not influence the users’ behavioral intentions to reuse VR product presentation. We conclude that VR product presentations create a feeling of telepresence, which leads to a flow experience that contributes to the behavioral intention of users to reuse VR product presentations in the future.
In this entry, the 3D CAD reconstructions and 3D multi-material polymer replica printings of knight Götz von Berlichingen´s first „Iron Hand,“ which were developed in the last few years at Offenburg University, are presented. Even by today's standards, the first “Iron Hand”–as could be shown in the replicas–demonstrates sophisticated mechanics and well thought-out functionality and still offers inspiration and food for discussion when it comes to the question of an artificial prosthetic replacement for a hand.
Dementia is a clinical diagnosis reflecting many possible underlying pathologies, for example, vascular dementia and neurodegenerative disorders such as frontotemporal dementia, Lewy body-type disorder or Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The breakthrough of 99mtechnetium-labelled perfusion tracers in the 1990s resulted in many SPECT studies of flow changes in AD. In the first decade of 2000, the role of perfusion SPECT was shifted from diagnosis towards differential diagnosis, parallel to the growing attention for diagnosing early stages of dementia. Previously a diagnosis based largely on a process of exclusion, new guidelines have emerged increasingly employing positive criteria to establish the diagnosis, including neuroimaging biomarkers. Nowadays, FDG PET has largely limited the role of perfusion SPECT, although it is still considered a valuable and cost-effective alternative when PET is not available.
PET and SPECT in Neurology
(2021)
This book provides a comprehensive overview of the use of PET and SPECT in not only classic neurodegenerative disorders but also cerebrovascular disorders, brain tumors, epilepsy, head trauma, coma, sleeping disorders, and inflammatory and infectious diseases of the CNS. The new edition has been revised and updated to reflect recent advances and includes additional chapters, for example on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning in imaging data analysis, the study of brain connectivity using PET and SPECT images, and the role of PET imaging in modulation of brain functioning by deep brain stimulation. The authors are renowned experts whose dedication to the investigation of neurological disorders through nuclear medicine technology has achieved international recognition. Most chapters are written jointly by a clinical neurologist and a nuclear medicine specialist to ensure a multidisciplinary approach. This state of the art compendium will be invaluable for neurologists and radiologists/nuclear medicine specialists and will also be informative for interested general practitioners and geriatricians. Companion volumes on PET and SPECT in psychiatry and in neurobiological systems complete a trilogy.