Refine
Document Type
- Working Paper (19) (remove)
Language
- English (19) (remove)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (19) (remove)
Keywords
- Export (6)
- COVID-19 (3)
- Finance (3)
- Trade (3)
- Climate (2)
- Credit Agency (2)
- Germany (2)
- Innovation (2)
- Insurance (2)
- Asia Pacific region (1)
Institute
Open Access
- Open Access (19)
- Bronze (3)
In a dynamic global landscape, the role of UK Export Finance (UKEF) and other export credit agencies (ECAs) has never been more important. Access to finance is critical for exporters as it enables them to invest in production, expand operations, manage cash flow and mitigate trade risks. However, businesses face challenges in securing export finance and trade credit insurance as geopolitical and trade megatrends lead to increased political, market and credit risks. Drawing on qualitative data from 35 semi-structured interviews and expert discussions and based on the Futures Triangle analytical framework, this white paper analyses the geopolitical and trade megatrends that UKEF and other ECAs will face in the coming years. It presents novel findings about the implications for ECA mandates, strategies, products and operations: The evolution of mandates towards a “growth promoter”, the need to further scale up operations, the use of big data and artificial intelligence for risk analysis and forecasting, and the need to balance multiple and conflicting priorities, including export growth, support for small and medium-sized exporters, inclusive trade, climate action, and positive impact in developing markets.
TRIZ Inventive Principles
(2022)
The analysis of several thousand patents led to the conclusion that inventive engineering problems and technical contradictions in all kinds of industrial sectors could be solved by a limited number of basic Inventive Principles (Altshuller, 1984). The modern Theory of Inventive Problem Solving TRIZ (VDI 4521) contains 40 basic Inventive Principles (IP). These principles are simple to use or modify and can be easily integrated in brainstorming or daily engineer’s work. One established part of industrial practice is the composition of the specific groups of principles for solving different kinds of problems (Livotov, Petrov, 2011). Based on interdisciplinary experience of TRIZ application in the industrial companies in the last 25 years the a general order in the application of 40 Inventive Principles can be recommended for idea generation and problem solving (Livotov, Chandra, Mas'udah et al, 2019). This brochure presents an update of the 40 Inventive Principles extending the original version (Altshuller, 1984) with additional 70 sub-principles, resulting in the advanced set of 160 sub-principles, regarded as elementary inventive operators. These extended version of inventive principles finds its application in the AIDA Automatic IDEA & IP Generator https://www.tris-europe.com/eng/software/innovationssoftware.htm
The present essay discusses several channels of social policy on climate mitigation and utilizes the Universal Basic Income (UBI) scheme as an example for endowment increasing and inclusive social policy instruments. UBI comprises the payment of a fixed amount of money to every member of a society from birth to death and is not bounded to any precondition. It is expected to increase resilience of individuals against disruptive and unexpected processes, such as climate change, digitization, aging population and the changing world of work, rather than particular life-trajectories. UBI is found to be a social policy instrument whose effects can contribute to climate mitigation. This essay is far from being conclusive and rather aims to raise questions which require further analysis.
The aim of the essay is to identify current trends in infrastructure financing in times of net zero, crucial challenges, and solutions to overcome these issues. To gain information, a fundamental literal research, and interviews with infrastructure financing specialists of development banks were conducted. The growing importance of climate aspects for financing decisions, the changing sources of infrastructure funding and the increased role of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) can be listed as the most important trends. The main challenges are the financing gap for infrastructure, the high investment risks and a lack of standards, and policies regarding climate neutrality. To overcome these challenges, innovative financing solutions and the merging of public and private funding have been identified as potential solutions.
This paper examines and evaluates the challenges and opportunities of export credit agencies (ECA) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Political risks, unrest and instability made exports in the MENA region arduous. Further challenges are demonetization, the lack of reliable information and the acquisition of skilled employees. Access to financial resources can be quite challenging and several ECAs in the MENA region struggle from having no economies of scale. The global trend of globalisation and digitalisation has proved to be both a challenge and an opportunity. Nevertheless, the ECAs are becoming progressively important and needed in the MENA region. ECAs can benefit from this by working closely with financial institutions, banks and stakeholders. Other opportunities are infrastructure, renewable energies, international events and the diversification of the product portfolio. Through research on the ECAs EGE, ECI, Credit Oman and ICIEC, differences of multilateral and national export credit agencies have been analysed as well.
The aim of this essay is to point out the challenges and opportunities of government export credits and insurance in Europe. The Covid-19 pandemic confronted the entire world with new challenges. This also applied to the export financing and insurance market. Furthermore, there are also challenges that play a major role for ECAs regardless of the pandemic. However, the risks are also offset by opportunities that may enable European export credit agencies to prevail against international competition.
The focus of this essay is on the export credit agencies from Finland (Finnvera), Sweden (EKN) and Portugal (COSEC). As part of the European Union (EU) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) the three ECAs share many fundamental similarities but in some points they may also distinguish from each other.
The aim of this essay is to give an overview about recent developments of the government innovation funds of Sweden and Finland. In order to discover recent developments basic knowledge regarding innovation funds, funding structures and information about the two big funding agencies Vinnova Sweden and Business Finland is presented. Building on this information, the developments of the two funding agencies are compared and examined for similarities and differences. Both countries have a very similar structure in terms of the R&D sector and are striving with the same issues. Just as sustainability is a leading issue, the collaboration between the different shareholders is another main challenge. Both topics were negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Both Sweden and Finland had to really push forward innovation with financial support and political, strategic goals. Even though there are strong recent developments, the countries are facing the same challenges, do have similar funding structures and therefore have no big comparative strengths or weaknesses to each other.
Innovation Policies and Government Instruments – An illustration of Israel’s innovation system
(2021)
The aim of this paper is to introduce innovation policy measures, government instruments and conceptual approaches to promote innovation growth. Since Israel is increasingly establishing itself as a pioneer for innovation, this paper mainly refers to their innovation policy. This paper will explain why Israel's innovation policy is successful and which actors play a particularly important role in it. Using semi-structured interviews, government experts like the Israel Innovation Authority as well as companies like Bosch were asked about Israel’s national innovation system and its success which allowed diverse perspectives on the topic.
The aim of this essay is to give a systematic review of the literature. Climate change is omnipresent and manifests itself in a steady increase in global warming. This trend was triggered as a reaction to increasing emissions in the course of industrialization. Climate finance is generally understood to be the provision of public, private, and alternative sources of finance that represent measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Significant commitments to support developing countries by developed countries have been manifested in the UNFCC climate framework and the Paris Climate Agreement. Funding from public and private sources increased to a total of $540 billion in 2019. Whether multilateral or bilateral, the largest share is provided in the form of loans to the target countries.
Germany was considered the world's export champion for a long time, until it was overtaken by China in 2009. Both nations provide officially supported export credits to national exporting organizations, but the two systems operate differently. German export credit guarantees serve as a substitute when the private market is unable to assume the risks of exporting companies. The German Export Credit Agency Euler Hermes is responsible for processing applications on behalf of the Federal Government. China belongs to the largest providers of export finance with the institutions China EXIM and Sinosure. While Germany is bound by the OECD consensus, which defines the level playing field, Chinese export credit agencies have greater flexibility not being bound by international rules or agreements.
Disruptive innovations can solve major global challenges. However, the system in Germany does not sufficiently favor the development of such innovations. The disruptive output of leading nations like the United States puts increasing pressure on Germany’s innovation leadership. The German innovation agency SPRIND was founded in 2019 and is a suitable instrument to promote disruptive innovations. The SPRIND itself cites the American innovation agency DARPA, which has been promoting disruptive innovations since 1958, a role model. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to conduct a comparative analysis of DARPA and SPRIND. To answer the research question, secondary sources were used. In addition, two expert interviews were conducted with employees of SPRIND. The result of this paper is a systematic comparison that identifies the key differences and similarities between the two agencies. SPRIND is based on DARPA in key success factors, such as the person-centered approach, funding instruments or risk management. However, compared to DARPA, SPRIND has a major disadvantage; namely several administrative hurdles which inhibit agile action.
Supporting the COVID-19 response in Asia and the Pacific—The role of the Asian Development Bank.
(2020)
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the Asia Pacific region over the last few months with far reaching economic, health and social consequences. To counter the impact, governments have accelerated their health spending and announced large macroeconomic stabilization and stimulus policy packages. As with past disasters and crises in the region, the Asian Development Bank has reacted with a number of targeted support interventions since the very early stages of the outbreak. In mid- April 2020, the Bank then put forward a comprehensive COVID-19 Response Package totalling $20 billion to support its member countries which rests on four pillars.
The last few months have proven that multilateral development banks like the Asian Development Bank have the ability to respond quickly and to mobilize significant resources for a global emergency like COVID-19. Whilst this financial supported is urgently needed at this point, attention will need to be paid on how debt sustainability for low- and middle-income countries can be ensured in the coming years. Given the unprecedented scale of and uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic, it may offer a window of opportunity to redesign the way developmental finance is coordinated and the way it is delivered. This also includes a chance to “build back better” and to focus on a sustainable, resilient and green recovery.
Africa was the last region to witness significant spread of the COVID-19. Nonetheless, it was expected that the continent would be hardest hit due to the fragility of its health and social infrastructure as well as the vulnerability of its economies. While the rates of infection and death were initially relatively low and contained economically, the continent was hard hit early on. Cuts in credit and trade services by international banks, along with a decline in export earnings, tourism receipts, and inward remittances, have severely constrained the ability of African countries to finance imports of essential goods and to service maturing debt obligations.
However, Africa has over time created mechanisms and institutions to help cushion its economies from the adverse consequences of global shocks. Among these institutions is Afreximbank, which emerged out of the debt crisis of the 1980s. This paper presents an overview of the Bank’s support to African countries in dealing with two major derivatives of the COVID-19 pandemic: the trade finance challenges resulting from cuts in international financial flows to the continent, and the health consequences of the pandemic.
Synthesizing voice with the help of machine learning techniques has made rapid progress over the last years [1]. Given the current increase in using conferencing tools for online teaching, we question just how easy (i.e. needed data, hardware, skill set) it would be to create a convincing voice fake. We analyse how much training data a participant (e.g. a student) would actually need to fake another participants voice (e.g. a professor). We provide an analysis of the existing state of the art in creating voice deep fakes and align the identified as well as our own optimization techniques in the context of two different voice data sets. A user study with more than 100 participants shows how difficult it is to identify real and fake voice (on avg. only 37 percent can recognize a professor’s fake voice). From a longer-term societal perspective such voice deep fakes may lead to a disbelief by default.
As the world economy rapidly decarbonises to meet global climate goals, the export credit sector must keep pace. Countries representing over two-thirds of global GDP have now set net zero targets, as have hundreds of private financial institutions. Public and private initiatives are now working to develop new standards and methodologies for shifting investment portfolios to decarbonisation pathways based on science.
However, export credit agencies (ECAs) are only at the beginning stages of this seismic transformation. On the one hand, the net zero transition creates risks to existing business models and clients for the many ECAs, while on the other, it creates a significant opportunity for ECAs to refocus their support to help countries and trade partners meet their climate targets. ECAs can best take advantage of this transition, and minimise its risks, by setting net zero targets and adopting credible plans to decarbonise their portfolios. Collaboration across the sector can be a powerful tool for advancing this goal.
The global pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 requires governments to implement and strengthen climate policies as global emissions are reaching record level. Climate finance plays a crucial role in the net zero transition. It refers to local, national or transnational financing seeking to support mitigation and adaptation actions that address climate change. Public export-import banks (EXIMs) and government export credit agencies (ECAs) are highly influential actors for climate action. Although there is no consensus among EXIMs and ECAs on how to define climate finance, 20 institutions assessed in this report give evidence that they significantly support climate action related transactions: EXIM and ECA financing and insurance amounted to EUR 6.7-8.4 billion in 2020, much more than estimated by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI). However, the results also show that EXIM and ECA lending and insurance activities must rise substantially in order to contribute to the climate finance volumes required by 2030 as estimated by CPI. To retain their current proportion relative to other climate finance flows, assessed institutions would need to increase their climate financing 6.8 times to between EUR 45.3 billion and EUR 57.4 billion by 2030.
Differences in Unemployment due to Sexual Orientation: Evidence from the Swedish Labour Market
(2021)
The right to engage in work and choose an occupation to freely work at, is declared a fundamental human right in the EU. Behaviour that restrains somebody from doing so, due to sexual orientation discrimination for example, is prohibited. Inquiries on the dimension of this particular behaviour, as well as the magnitude of harm it causes in the population, is of vital importance for policy makers and the entire civil society. A growing number of research pertaining to labour market outcomes due to sexual orientation has been conducted rececently. Most of the studies have been carried out in western countries, where annual income, hourly wages, labour market participation and employment decisions have been in the focus of researchers. Ahmet, Andersson and Hammarstedt have been the pioneering scientists in this field in Sweden and contributed by extending their inquiries from the individual to the couple level (Ahmed, et al., 2011a) and to field experiments (Ahmed, et al., 2011b) in detecting discrimination against homosexuals. The present paper aims to contribute to the labour market discrimination literature by estimating the differences in the employment probabilities and in the duration of unemployment by sexual orientation in Sweden using survival analysis techniques. Time-to-event data is rare in social sciences, which is particularly valid for data sets where the sexual orientation of individuals is observable. Due to this scarcity, the present study represents the first paper investigating the effect of sexual preferences on the duration in unemploymnet using survival analysis techniques. In contrast to other estimation methods, survival techniques enable us to incorporate the particular nature of time-to-event data, such as its particular skewness, strict non- negative nature, as well as censoring and truncation. Separately Zero Inflated Negative Binomial regression has been conducted to the duration in unemployment and Probit estimation to the event of getting employed, where differing significant outcomes by sexual orientation have been detected for some specifications. The remainder of the article is organized as follows. A detailed literature review is provided in section 2. Section 3 comprises the theoretical framework of the investigation, while section 4 contains the methodical framework and research design. Data and descriptive statistics are presented in section 5, followed by the results of the estimation in section 6. Section 7 concludes with the final discussion.
During the year 2015 almost 1.4 million refugees arrived in Europe (eurostat, 2020). Germany was with 1.1 million individuals the major destination (Statista, 2018). A huge political divide occurred over this influx. While welcoming scenes dominated the media in the advent of the so called ‘refugee crisis’, criticism over the ‘We’ll-make-it policy’ by Angela Merkel increased also among Christian Democrats.1A sudden human influx of such size into a society might not only have political, cultural and social impacts, but may also lead to economic disruptions. Human beings embody consumers as well as labour force. A significant increase in population might thus cause an increase in demand for commodities and in labour supply, which ceteris paribus simultaneously lead to increasing GDP and decreasing wages. Previous literature utilized quasi-natural experiments which can be exploited in social sciences for the detection of causal relations and the usage of methods, not applicable otherwise. The present paper applies the synthetic control methodology to wages, unemployment and economic growth in Germany in order to measure the causal impact of the 2015- refugee influx on these economic key elements. No impact on either of the economic factors has been found.
European Union labour market and welfare policies are concerned with the protection of European citizens from disruptive processes. Falling wages and increasing unemployment, as well as decreasing production and consumption embody highly disruptive political potential. Thus, the findings concerning the impact of refugee migration into the European Union might influence EU-policies in the prospect of increased migration to Europe in the upcoming century due climate change and new crises. The remainder of the article is organized as follows: The lessons from the key literature concerning quasi- natural experiments and the impact of migration on wages, unemployment and economic growth are provided in section 2. Section 3 comprises the theoretical framework concerning the differences between refugees and economic migrants. Section 4 introduces the estimation strategy, while section 5 presents data and descriptive statistics. Section 6 shows the simulation results, followed by the concluding discussion in section 7.
Automobile premium brands operate globally, which is undoubtedly required, because, for the most part, domestic markets are either decreasing or stagnating. China has become today the most important and biggest car market. Recently selling has become challenging because urban areas are well penetrated, and in poorly penetrated rural areas, incomes are low. This is particularly alarming for German brands, because of their premium orientation. Simultaneously, the after-sales market in China has been growing continuously. As a result, this market has a huge potential, which is likewise attractive because it has been scientifically proven across industries that after-sales services are high-margin profit drivers. Despite its great significance, the Chinese automobile after-sales market remains insufficiently researched, especially in terms of critical success factors and cultural influences, which therefore was the starting point for a study. The results will presented and interpreted now in this new working-paper.