Open Access

Predicting energy production from photovoltaics (PV) is crucial for efficient energy management. In order to apply different operating strategies, it is necessary to predict the expected amounts of PV energy. The operating strategies are typically optimized with regard to economic or technical goals or a combination of both. Within this work, we show a possibility to predict PV power production using local weather data and Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODE). Based on the measured values from the PV system and an associated weather station, the NODE is trained and validated with regard to PV production. The measurement data are collected from the PV system of the former Campus North of Offenburg University of Applied Sciences.

Expectations about future energy prices are crucial for investment decisions, market reform debates, and public policy. Yet, the recent energy crisis caused dramatic market uncertainty. This study investigates Germany’s near-future wholesale electricity price in the context of evolving market trends. A flexible econometric model is applied to high-frequency, near-time data, spanning January 2015 through May 2023. A potential endogeneity bias of trade is circumvented by an instrumental-variables approach. Results indicate that expanding renewable energy exerts downward pressure on price, countering trends like the nuclear phaseout, a rising carbon price, increased electrification, and a high gas price. The collective impact suggests a considerably higher electricity price in the coming years compared to pre-crisis levels. This finding is corroborated by a fundamental energy system model. The potential rise in renewables’ production volatility may amplify electricity price volatility. A high and volatile near-future electricity price could spur investments in renewables and flexibility technologies but pose challenges for consumers. Our analysis aids evidence-based decision-making amid the post-crisis landscape.

Die Brisanz des fortschreitenden Klimawandels nimmt zu und das ist eine wahrhaft schlechte Nachricht. Weil sich diese Erkenntnis immer mehr durchsetzt, steigt der Handlungsdruck auf Politik und Wirtschaft und so haben sich die Europäische Union aber auch viele Unternehmen zum Ziel gesetzt klimaneutral zu werden.

Overview As awareness of climate change and its effects is raising more concern among the population and politicians, negative emissions technologies have gained attention for their role in mitigating global warming. The expansion of renewable energy systems together with decarbonisation technologies is a key factor in accomplishing this objective. With a primary focus on Germany, our research focuses on the introduction of pyrolysis and its implications in the energy system. This study explores the integration of pyrolysis as a producer of biochar and electricity into Germany's energy system as part of the "PyFlex" project. Method Using MyPyPSA-Ger, we model pyrolysis plants, considering costs and biomass potential. The model integrates pyrolysis outputs, like biochar and electricity, with energy system components. Different scenarios, including cost and CO2 limits, assess pyrolysis’s behaviour and influence on the system. The model focuses on utilizing unused biomass potentials, specifically straw and forest residue. Scenario analyses were conducted to evaluate the economic and technical parameters of pyrolysis, the use of storage technologies, and regulatory frameworks, examining the cost-optimal expansion of Germany's electricity system. Results Key findings indicate that wind and photovoltaic (PV) installations will dominate Germany's energy mix by 2045, with pyrolysis contributing flexibility to the system and reducing the installed capacity of wind power by 25%. Gas power plants will continue to be used in moment where no renewable energy is available, with their emissions being offset by the biochar produced through pyrolysis. The model predicts significant expansion of pyrolysis only after 2030, with full utilization of available biomass not expected until 2035. The rate of pyrolysis deployment will be driven by the cost of implementation until 2045, after which decreasing emission limits and the need for flexible electricity generation will determine its role in the energy system. Pyrolysis is shown to contribute to achieving net negative emissions at lower costs, especially when deployed as a flexible energy provider in a system with high renewable energy shares. Overall, the study highlights the dual role of pyrolysis in the energy system: when investment costs are low, pyrolysis is primarily used for electricity generation; when costs are high, it functions as a negative emissions technology. The findings underscore the potential of pyrolysis to support Germany's transition to a climate-neutral energy system by providing flexibility and reducing overall costs.

The building sector is accountable for roughly one third of global energy- and process-related greenhouse gas emissions. Besides space heating, domestic hot water (DHW) heating contributes substantially to energy consumption and related greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector. Depending on the DHW system design and its required supply temperature, heat losses make up around 30…60 % of the energy required for DHW heating. To decrease energy consumption and reduce associated greenhouse gas emissions, it is essential to minimize heat losses and implement efficient DHW concepts. Heat pumps can potentially reduce energy consumption, but their efficiency strongly depends on the DHW system design and its required supply temperature. These aspects are evaluated by performing a comprehensive analysis of different DHW concepts utilizing heat pumps. Based on annual heat demands extracted from one year measurement data of a typical multi-family house in Germany, simulations of six different DHW concepts are performed. Our findings reveal that decentralized DHW systems or low system temperatures (48 °C), e.g. in combination with ultrafiltration for legionella treatment in centralized DHW systems, can lead to a substantial reduction in heat losses for DHW preparation of around 25 % and in final energy of 20 % compared to the reference case. In large systems the share of losses should be kept below 30 % by reducing pipe lengths and equipping the most distant tapping points with direct electric water heaters.